SJM | J.M. Smuckers Trading Journal with VantagePoint

VantagePoint Trading Software is a forecasting tool that uses a combination of end-of-day data and artificial intelligence to provide traders a forecast of market movement 1-3 days in advance with the goal of helping them improve their timing on making trades and maximizing their profit potential. The artificial intelligence software forecasts market movement for stocks, futures, Forex and ETF markets. Following the description of how the software works is a recent trading journal on SJM.

The basic concepts operate using two indicators, a traditional simple moving average (SMA) displayed as a black line on the charts and VantagePoint’s patented predictive moving average (PMA) displayed as a blue line. This proprietary indicator uses artificial intelligence to analyze both the past price data of a given market and the 25-30 most influential markets and how they affect the price action of the market.

When the blue PMA line crosses the black SMA line to the upside, traders can interpret this as VantagePoint signaling a new uptrend, or bullish trend. Traders can expect the uptrend to continue if the blue line remains above the black line. The trend is over when a new crossover occurs and the blue line crosses the black line to the downside. Conversely, if the blue PMA crosses the black SMA to the downside, VantagePoint is suggesting the start of a new bearish, or downtrend. Traders looking to short the market may find this instance as the best time to enter the market if they are looking to follow a downtrend.

A second key aspect of the VantagePoint Software is the neural index. Another patented indicator, this measures the anticipated market movement over the next 48 hours. If the software predicts the price to be higher over the next 48 hours, the green indicator line moves to the “one” position. If the prices are predicted to be lower, the indicator slides down to the “zero” position.

Using the neural index in conjunction with the crossovers on the chart allows traders to easily see when a new trend is starting and what to expect from a market in the coming days. This has the potential to greatly increase a trader’s profit potential by more clearly identifying trends and entry and exit points.

To demonstrate these concepts, we’ll use the recent market movements in J.M. Smucker NYSE: SJM.

VantagePoint Trading Journal SJM

SJM has been in a persistent downtrend since the beginning of March 2017.  However, there was a major reversal signal from VantagePoint’s PMA on May 18th. This is a signal for a new opportunity to get long the market.

image of vantage point trading chart for SJM
VantagePoint signaled a new crossover for SJM on May 18th. This indicates the start of a new bullish trend. Traders may want to enter a new long position.

This allowed traders to set a limit buy order for the next trading day, May 19th, at the VantagePoint predicted low level of $125.26. VantagePoint indicates the market trend will continue based on the Blue (PMA) line remaining above the Black (SMA) line.

image of vantage point trading chart for SJM
Traders can use the predicted low levels forecasted by VantagePoint to establish better entry points for long trades.

All initial stops are placed below $123.80 as this is outside the most recent low achieved on May 11th.  This gives the market plenty of room for normal volatility. But it also places the stops where the market shouldn’t trade, should the bearish reversal take hold.

image of vantage point trading chart for SJM
Traders can set their stops outside the most recent low to ensure they don’t get stopped out by normal volatility.

After one day of trading, SJM closed at 126.96 on May 22. The chart still indicates the trend to continue the following day. For now, we’ll leave our positions alone and see how the market moves in the coming days. That movement could force us to adjust our stops and look to take shorter term profits.

image of vantage point trading chart for SJM
The market closed at $126.96 the next trading day. Since there is no crossover, we can look to remain in this position. Depending on future market movements, we could adjust our stops and take some shorter term profits.

Below is a summary of the recent market movement of SJM as of May 22.

100 SHARES = $12,526

ENTRY Price on 5-19-17 = $125.26
Close price as of recent chart (5-22-17) = 126.96
Potential profit = $1.70 per share
Current Stop Loss = $123.80
This is $1.46 away from entry price and our current risk per share

UPDATE: 5/26/2017

Today SJM is trading around 128.00. VantagePoint is still forecasting the bull trend to continue based on the blue line remaining above the black line. We can look at the chart and see an increased separation between these two lines. This indicates a strengthening of the bullish trend. We also see the VantagePoint neural index is still in a “one” position. This tells us to expect strength over the short-term of the next 2 trading days. Ideally, we would like to see a move above $129 next week. If that happens we’ll take a look at the VantagePoint predicted high levels for opportunities to take some short-term profit on some of the current positions.

Each 100 share purchase is currently up $275 based on our entry price of $125.26. Our stops are still in the initial position of $123.80… for now. Should the market move higher next week, we will be able to take profit on some of the positions and look to buy it back at a lower price. Should VantagePoint forecast the market to move lower, we can adjust our stops and look to take some profits and reduce our position size.

Smuckers VantagePoint Trading Diary
The market has moved up to $128 but we are looking for the market to approach $129 to allow us to take short-term profit on some of our positions.

Below is a summary of the recent market movement of SJM as of May 26.

100 SHARES = $12,526

ENTRY Price on 5-19-17 = $125.26
Close price as of recent chart (5-25-17) = 128.00
Potential profit = $2.74 per share
Current Stop Loss = $123.80
This is $1.46 away from entry price and our current risk per share.

UPDATE: 5/29/2017

The forecasts from Monday night suggest a predicted high value of $128.69. If we can get to that level, then we are comfortable taking some of our positions out of play to secure profits. Taking half of our position out of play on Tuesday will allow us to lock in a profit on the current position. A $171 profit on the half position will surpass the total initial position risk based on our stops loss positions.

The initial stops can stay fixed at $123.80 for now. However, we’ll keep an eye on the predicted daily lows. If those values are surpassed, then we will start to think about tightening our stops as a 1/2 position “take profit” stop.

The predicted high value for 5/30 is $128.69. If we can reach that level, we’ll look to close some positions to secure some realized gains.

Below is a summary of the recent market movement of SJM as of May 29.

100 SHARES = $12,526

ENTRY Price on 5-19-17 = $125.26
Close price as of recent chart (5-29-17) = $128.17
Potential profit = $2.91 per share
Current Stop Loss = $123.80
This is $1.46 away from entry price and our current risk per share.

UPDATE: 5/31/2017

On the evening of 5/30, we see the Neural Index has moved to the “zero” position. This signals expected short-term loss over the next 48 hour period. However, the overall trend is still up because the blue line is still over the black line. The neural index moving to “zero” signals an opportunity to make a little profit by closing some of our positions. Our strategy is to take some profits now while leaving some positions open and look for the long term trend to continue. Going into the trading day on Tuesday, we were prepared to take profit on half of our 100 positions if it dropped below the previous day’s low.  Lucky for us, the market immediately moved higher to hit the initial profit target of $128.69 we were looking for on 5-29. This allowed us to take $171 profit on half the positions.

SJM met our target price of $128.69. We made the decision to take some short-term profit by closing out half of our positions.

Now that we have some realized profits, we will adjust our stops and move them to the break-even level at $125.26. Since there is some short-term weakness forecasted from the Neural Index we have now protected ourselves in the event the market continues to push lower. At the same time, we still maintain the position in the event the market breaks out to the upside.

Below is a summary of the recent market movement of SJM as of May 31.

100 SHARES = $12,526

ENTRY Price on 5-19-17 = $125.26
Exit price on 50 shares: $128.69
Realized profit per share:  $3.43 ($171.50 total)
Remaining positions: 50 shares
Close price as of recent chart (5-31-17) = $127.85
Potential profit on remaining positions = $2.59 per share
Current Stop Loss = $125.26
This is $0.00 away from entry price and our current risk per share

UPDATE: 6/12/2017

SJM had a wild day on June 8. It peaked at $134.12 and got as low as $127.74 before closing at $128.51. That created concern for the continuation of our bullish momentum. After trading ended on 6-9-17, VantagePoint indicated a new crossover and a neural index in the “zero” position heading into Monday’s action. Anticipating a new bearish trend, we tightened our stops to $126. This will guarantee that we make some profits on our remaining active positions.

After a wild day, VantagePoint indicated a new crossover to the downside. That means its time to start looking to get out of our long positions.

UPDATE: 6/13/2017

We didn’t get stopped out on Monday as the market had a bullish day. The trend reamains down as the blue line is still below the black, so we are still looking to get out of this long position. The predicted high for Tuesday is $128.88. If the market hits that mark and we exit our positions there, we would see an additional $180 profit.

Our stops didn’t get hit yet, but the trend is still down. If the market can hit the predicted high on Tuesday, we could see a nice profit from our remaining positions.

Below is a summary of the recent market movement of SJM as of June 12.

100 SHARES = $12,526

ENTRY Price on 5-19-17 = $125.26
Exit price on 50 shares: $128.69
Realized profit per share:  $3.43 ($171.50 total)
Remaining positions: 50 shares
Close price as of recent chart (6-12-17) = $128.05
Potential profit on remaining positions = $2.79 per share
Current Stop Loss = $126.00
This is $0.74 away from entry price and our minimum profit per share

UPDATE: 6/14/2017

SJM hit the VantagePoint predicted high of $128.88 which triggered our exit from this market. Adding this final profit to the realized profits we already claimed, we made $352.50 in just under a month.

SJM reached the predicted high value of $128.88. This allowed us to exit the rest of our positions and enjoy a total profit of $352.50.

Below is a final summary on SJM as of June 14.

100 SHARES = $12,526
ENTRY Price on 5-19-17 = $125.26
Exit price on 50 shares: $128.69
Realized profit per share:  $3.43 ($171.50 total)
Remaining positions: 50 shares
Exit price (6-14-17) = $128.88
Realized profit on remaining positions = $3.62 per share ($181 total)

Total Profits from SJM = $171.50+ $181.00 = $352.50

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tylerr@tradermarketinggroup.com'

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