08/10/14 – HOG-NYSE – My stop loss was taken out during today’s session giving a 1.35% loss on my trading account balance due to gap up on open. The price just closed me out and finished strongly and still sets up for a rend reversal so I will take another conservative look at this tomorrow. The last time this happened was in March this years and although the trade wasn’t pretty, I did make profit after a much larger gap, Trade Diary for this trade HERE . The only difference between the trades was the fact that this trades was a potential trend reversal against the EXPD trade that was a with trend trade. The initial stages of this HOG NYSE trade were good with a strong setup but the markets volatility worked against me in this particular trade. Chart as Below.
07/10/14 – HOG NYSE – The price gapped up on open in yesterday session, which triggered the trade at the open price of 60.62 and then closed the gap for the remainder of the session. During the pre-market action yesterday there was a gap up on the cards but not this big and so I decided to leave the Stop Buy order on. The Dilemma now is that the Risk for this trade is now 1.35% of my trading account balance due to the gap up on open and to keep in line with my 1% risk profile I have to adjust the Stop Loss to compensate, which will be above the Wave 5 low. The new position for the Stop Loss would be @ 57.98 which is still be below the support & resistance level and I am seriously considering this adjustment but will wait to see how the price action plays out in today’s session. (White line shows order entry point and new Green hatched line shows open entry point) Chart as Below.
04/10/14 – HOG NYSE – My recent successful Short trade on this HOG NYSE stock closed out last week giving great profits and the full trade diary can be read HERE . I now have to consider that a Trend reversal trade has potential for this stock and technically I have 6/8 of my trade setup indicators for this type of trade in the green. One thing to consider when setting up a Trend reversal is the behavior of the previous Bearish Trend and in particular the Wave 4 and in this case as I experienced with a winning trade this previous trend was good. Importantly there was not one clear bar below the target price level for this Wave 5 extreme and during Friday’s session it did break the Trend Channel of the Wave 5 movement. The volume for both Thursday and Friday’s positive movements was above average which gives strength to this rebound from the recent bearish Trend. The technical setup is very good but at this stage I cannot foresee whether this is simply a correction towards the previous trend’s Wave 4 level or in fact it is a true Trend reversal. So all I can do is setup the trade with the initial target at the Wave 4 level of the previous trend. This gives a Risk to Reward profile of over 1:2 and therefore is a credible trade whether or not the price of this HOG NYSE stock continues on to reverse the previous Bearish Trend beyond that level. Stop BUY order placed @ 59.70 which is above the High of last Friday and way out of the Trend Channel for Monday’s bar position. The Stop Loss is placed @ 57.26 which is below the Wave 5 extreme and also below the 57.30 Support level. The initial Take Profit Limit order is at the previous trends Wave 4 price @ 65.88. Also on the 4hr (240 min) Chart at the very bottom of this post I can see that the Trend Channel is Broken and the 6/4 MA High line has been broken and closed above on Friday, giving more evidence of a possible Trend Reversal or correction. Charts as below for this potential Trend reversal trade on HOG NYSE.