Harley Davidson Stock ($HOG) – Short Swing Trade

14/09/14 – I have been watching this Harley Davidson Stock price action over the last week and now this potential Short trade is setting up well.  There are 6/9 of my trade setup indicators in the green with a 7th going green on trigger, with the Trend Channel just short of minimum by 0.001. The Wave 4 pull back has closed the gap down that occurred in July and has seemed to have found resistance at the $66.00 price level. Like all the potential Short trade orders that are still on ( INFA – NYSE and EDU – NYSE ), I intend to be conservative about the entry for this potential Short trade on the Harley Davidson Stock.  I have elected to place the entry point just below the Fib 0.25 level taken between Wave 2 and Wave 3, which is also below the 6/4 MA Low line and out of the Trend Channel for Monday’s bar position (blue vertical line).  Stop Sell order @ 63.44 with the Stop Loss @ 66.02 and the initial Take profit Limit Order @ 58.30, giving a Risk to Reward Ratio of 1:2.  Chart as below for this potential Short trade on the Harley Davidson Stock.

harley davidson stock HOG#1 HOG#2

17/09/14 – This Short Trade on the Harley Davidson Stock has triggered in a large movement down with an above average volume, which is always a good sign.  I do expect a pull back of some sorts after this large movement down but will be happy with the trade closing below the entry on Friday, to then see the momentum continue down next week.  Obviously the FOMC decisions  and the following Yellen Speech, along with the Scottish Referendum are going to de-stabalise the market at the end of the week, but the party will be over by Monday and individual share prices should resume back within their cycles.  Chart as Below for the trigger into this Harley Davidson Stock Short Trade.

harley davidson stock

25/09/14 – My Short trade on the Harley Davidson Stock has enjoyed great momentum over the last week and yesterday’s bar closed at 50% to the target zone.  In line with my trade management strategy I have placed a trailing Stop @ 63.19, which is just above Breakeven, locking in 0.1% profit on my trading account balance.  More importantly this short trade on the Harley Davidson Stock is now a “Risk Free Trade”.  I have included two charts below the first is confirmation of this Trailing Stop and the second highlights that the price is approaching a major support level which it has tested twice in the past and bounced back up. A difference this time compared to the pivot C from February this year is that the price action is returning to a Bearish trend from the recent wave 3, which is highlighted by the yellow false bar stochastic at the foot of the stochastic study.  Also on both the C pivot and the recent Wave 3, the Daily bars were large movements that just tipped that price and bounced, something that yesterday’s bar failed to do. Even so this is a critical level and I cant ignore the past so the price action today and Friday is very important for this trade. One part of me is shouting to take the 1% profit where the price currently sits, but the heartless disciplined trader side is saying.  This is now a Risk free trade, give it chance to break through because if it does and closes below this level then there is  long way down.  Charts as below for this short trade on the Harley Davidson Stock.

HOG#6

harley davidson stock

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27/08/14 – The Harley Davidson Stock price broke through long term support in Fridays’s session to form a Wave 5 low for this current Elliott wave movement, to then close right on the support level at 60.51.  The momentum Still seems to be with the Bears for this Harley Davidson Stock price movement but of course this level is critical.  I have decided to adjust my Trailing Stop placement to lock in more profits and have placed the Trailing Stop at 62.16 which is $0.02 above the high of last Wednesday and locks in 0.5% profit on my trading account balance.  This Trailing Stop adjustment is pretty standard for me now once a Wave 5 is formed and I would expect the placements to become more aggressive during next week until I am taken out of the trade, or I decide to manually close the trade. This is still quite a conservative trade management strategy at this point allowing for a small potential pullback on Monday/Tuesday next week if the market gets nervous of this support level.  Chart as Below.

harley davidson stock

30/09/14 – The price for this Harley Davidson Stock opened and closed below the previous support level yesterday and formed a new Wave 5 extreme low for this movement.  This previous support level now becomes  short term resistance level,  The volume has steadily decreased over the last four sessions which is indicative of a Bearish trend, but I must be careful if that Daily volume falls below the average volume at around 1 million shares per day, this strong bearish run may be about to slow. I have adjusted the Trailing Stop reasonably aggressively to 60.85 which is out of the very tight trend channel this bearish movement is in and also above the previous support level that is now resistance.   This locks in 1% profit on my trading account balance.  I have also adjusted the Take Profit Limit order to 57.30 which is a previous support level, this will a potential greater profit if the price pushed through the initial target zone.  At this stage, I intend to manage this trade until a trailing stop is taken out  Chart as below for this adjustment to my Harley Davidson Stock Short trade.

.harley davidson stock

01/10/14 – The Harley Davidson stock price had further movement down in yesterday’s session with sightly higher volume and almost pushed through the support level.  Importantly the price closed near the days low indicating potential for the momentum to continue today.  I have adjusted the Take Profit Limit Order to 55.69.  I have also adjusted the Trailing Stop to 60.59, which is outside of the Wave 5 Trend Channel for today’s bar position, above the highs of the last two bars (days) and just above the previous support level.  This adjustment now locks in 1.1% profit on my trading account balance.  Chart as Below.

harley davidson stock

02/10/14 – The price for this Short trade on the Harley Davidson Stock broke through the support level in yesterday’s session and importantly closed out of it.  This movement yesterday was a Higher Volume movement and the price closed out near the low for the day also which, combined, gives weight to further momentum downwards in today’s session. There is a small support level at 57.30 and really needs to punch through that today. I have been much more aggressive with the Trailing Stop adjustment to lock in 1.8& profit on my trading account balance for this trade.  The Trailing Stop is placed @ 58.79 which is above the high of yesterday’s high and just above the main support level, which indeed was my original target price level for profit.  Chart as Below.

harley davidson stock

03/10/14 – My Trailing Stop for this Short trade on the Harley Davidson Stock has been taken out giving a 1.8% profit on my trading account balance.  I feel totally justified in giving this trade room to work once it broke through the support level this week, whilst still locking in decent profits.  So far out of the four Short trades opened in September, two have closed with this being the only successful trade out of the two. The losing trade so far is the EDU-NYSE trade whilst the other two trades are opposites also. with the HAS-LSE trade in profit with locked in profits and the INFA-NYSE currently in negative territory.  As it stands at the moment there would be a 50% win rate with a NET 1% profit between all 4 of these tester short trades in this uncertain market.  Chart as Below for this Short trade on the Harley Davidson Stock.

image of harley davidson stock chart

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paul.bratby@hotmail.com'

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