CBOE – Fibonacci Levels look good

17/11/14 – The Trailing Stop on this Long trade has been taken out during today’s session, giving a 2.5% profit on my trading account balance.  As I suspected the Wave 5 High has been reached and the price is pulling back and so I am satisfied with the result of this trade.  We cannot ignore Fibonacci levels and natural price point as support and resistance levels during trade setups and trade management and I feel totally justified for taking a more aggressive trade management view after last weeks price action. This trade has been on for 15 weeks and together with the successful scalp it has given me a total NET profit of 4.1% profit on my trading account balance which is a great boost to this quarters results.  I will say it again, Fibonacci levels play a large part in my trading decisions and they must not be ignored.  Chart as Below closing this trade out.

CBOE#17

15/11/14 – Its amazing how Fibonacci Levels play a vital role in resistance and support Levels with a stock price!  The Fibonacci 1.27 extension has proved, for the second week running, to be a strong resistance level for this trade. This together with the natural resistance level price of 63.00 will take some decent volume next week to break through.  I have have been very aggressive now with the Trailing Stop adjustment and have placed it just below the low of last week @ 60.10, which locks in 2.5% profit on my trading account balance.  I have circles the three previous negative weeks during this Wave 5 movement to highlight one of the factors guiding me to this aggressive management of the trade.  If you observe that after every negative week there was a positive week that DID NOT break the negative weeks low.  Therefore it can be surmised that if it did that next week then the momentum of this Wave 5 has reduced dramatically and there is every possibility  there could be a bearish correction. This fact along side the 1.27 Fib and 63.00 price level resistance level has forced my decision to become very aggressive with managing this trade to lock in as much profit as possible whilst still allowing the momentum pattern to continue if  there is desire in the market next week. Some novice traders see Fibonacci levels as weird and magical at the same time, but in reality lots of retail and especially institutional traders use these and many more Fibonacci levels to make trading decisions which obviously affects price action. Chart as below

CBOE#16

08/11/14 – The price for this CBOE-NASDAQ stock finally broke through the previous Wave 3 price level to form a new Wave 5 high during last weeks session.  As this was an all time high for this price and it is basically in unknown territory I have used a different style of Fibonacci Levels to help me in managing the trade. I have used a Fibonacci Extension taken between the Wave 3 extreme and the W4 extreme and look at the first 1.27 level was acting as resistance during last weeks session and the ultimate target zone is at the 1.618 level.  With this in mind and combined with my normal trade management process once a Wave 5 has formed, I have chosen to be more aggressive with my Trailing Stop Adjustment to protect more profits.  I have adjusted the Trailing Stop to 58.13 which way below the low of last weeks bar and below the Wave 3 extreme level which should act as support.  This adjustments locks in 2% profit on my trading balance.  Chart as Below.

fibonacci levels

02/11/14 – The price closed higher than 50% to the original target zone for last week’s bar with higher volume.  The Zero Line for my Fibonacci Levels, which is the previous Wave 3 High @ 59.37 will be the next resistance level and will come into play next week.  With this in mind I still want to be conservative with my Trailing Stop Adjustment, so I have placed the new Trailing Stop @ 53.38.  This placement is below the low of the last 4 weeks and locks in 0.8% profit on my trading account balance.  Any further adjustments will depend on the price action over the next couple of weeks where I am looking for higher highs and higher lows to continue the momentum towards the 3% profit line.  Chart as Below

CBOE#13

30/10/14 – This week has seen strong momentum for the main trade and is heading towards the previous Wave 3 High which may act as resistance at this zero line for my Fibonacci levels for this trade.  With his strong momentum I was looking for a High probability LONG Scalp on the 5 minute chart to Turbo Boost the main trade.  At 10:50 EST, the Stochastic crossed in the Over Sold Zone against a False Bar and a Bullish Harami was Formed and so I setup the trade order. The Stop Buy order was placed @ 58.49 which was $0.01 higher than the Red candle forming the back of the Bullish Harami with the Stop Loss @ 58.38, which was $0.01 below the low of the same Red Candle.  The Take Profit Limit Order was at the standard Stocks Scalp Risk to Reward of 1:1.6.  The trade tip toe triggered on the next candle and made an initial attempt at rising but fell back into the Risk zone, but eventually at 12:30 EST, my Take profit Limit Order was taken out giving a 1.6% profit on my trading account balance.  This is a great Turbo Boost to my main trade which is sitting just above 2% profit on its own, with a Trailing Stop locking in 0.5% profit.  Chart as Below for this Scalp trade on a 5 minute chart.

CBOE scalp#1

04/10/14 – The Fibonacci levels and in particular the Fib 0.382 level held as support on the Daily Chart for the previous weeks pull back period and this week has seen the trade return the the overall Bullish Wave 5 on the weekly Chart.  The second chart below shows the Daily chart setup where the price has pulled away and triggered a good trade on the 5th wave for that chart.  I did not enter this trade as it happened so fast and didn’t have enough time to let  subscribers to the diary know, which I really need to address in the future as I don’t personally want to miss out on trades like this for feeling guilty of not informing subscribers.  Having said that I can use it as a confidence tool that the previous weeks pull back was natural and that the Bullish trend has resumed.  With this in mind and considering the trade has been on for 10 weeks and only tipped a third of the way to the target price, I have placed a Trailing Time Stop @ 52.20.  This placement is sensibly below the recent Wave 4 pullback low on the Daily Chart, below the lows of the last 5 bars (weeks) and also below the 6/4 MA High line for next weeks bar position.  This allows the trade to continue to do its thing whilst locking in 0.5% profit on my trading account balance.  If the price does go against and breaks that level then it is most likely to continue and the Wave 5 will fail, hence the decision to introduce this Trailing Time Stop.  Charts as Below.

CBOE#11 CBOE#10 daily

27/09/14 – Last weeks pull back from the strong Bullish trend since this trade triggered has presented an interesting potential trade within a trade.  The first chart below shows the weekly chart, off which I am trading and the Fibonnaci Levels taken from the Daily Chart that is Below.  The Fibonnaci levels are for this long Bullish run, but reflect a strong Wave 2 to Wave 3 movement on the Daily Chart.  The price has been in a Wave 4 pull back on the Daily chart for the whole of last week reflected by the one Red bar on the Weekly Chart. The price found support at the 0.382 Fibonnaci Level and then bounced back during an overall bounce back on the US Markets.  Although the setup doesn’t quite meet my requirements yet for a “with trend” trade on the Daily Chart, I will be keeping a close eye on the price action for the first few days of next week as this could well setup for a trade within a trade, double points! I will only enter as I would normally for this type of trade.  I have also used this lower time frame and the Fibonnaci levels to understand the movement of the price within my current open trade on the Weekly time frame as it helps build confidence that this is a natural pullback within this Wave 5 movement.  next week will be very interesting for this trade.  Charts as Below

fibonacci levels CBOE#6

07/08/14 – This order has been on for 3 weeks and finally today it has tip toe triggered.  Fibonacci Levels can act as both resistance and support levels and in this case the 0.25 Fibonacci level has acted as resistance to further price movement, but finally this week the price has broken through.  The price has also moved through the 6/4 MA High Line and I would like to see this stock close on Friday above this 6/4 MA High Line and above the entry point.  Retreating back below the 0.25 Fibonacci level would not fill me with much confidence that the trade has gathered enough momentum to continue  and form a new Wave 5.  Chart as Below.

fibonacci levels

19/07/14 – The Fibonacci levels for the current Wave 4 Pull back for this NASDAQ stock are looking great and this potential trade is setting up well with 7/9 of my indicators in the green.  Although the TJ’s Ellipse is a long way off, I don’t think it will come into play for this potential trade.  The more important factor at this stage is the wave 4 pull back has occurred, so far, between the fibonacci levels of 0.25 and 0.382 which is a strong sign as 80% of successful Wave 5’s come after the Wave 4 has pulled back between these two Fibonacci Levels.  To remind you that the Fibonacci retracement is drawn between wave 2 and wave 3.  I have decided on an aggressive entry into this trade just out of the Trend Channel for next weeks bar position @ 50.20, which is also back out of the Fibonacci levels zone in which the price has pulled back to.  The Stop Loss, as usual, is below the Wave 4 extreme low @ 46.21, whilst the initial Take Profit Limit Order is @ 67.00 which gives a great Risk to reward ratio of over 1:3 for this potential trade.  As Below

fibonacci levels CBOE#1 CBOE#2osc

paul.bratby@hotmail.com'

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