22/09/14 -AUDNZD – The price has ventured too low breaking a main Elliott wave rule below the initial Wave 1. As you can see my software has now confirmed that by re-labeling the current movement a wave three indicating it is now in a bearish trend. I have cancelled my Buy order as this is now a low probability trade even if the price swings from today’s low. No emotion, it looked good Friday but not very good now so prepared to just walk away. Chart as Below
20/09/14 – AUDNZD – This currency pair closed at its low on Friday, closing the first TJ’s Ellipse at the Fib 0.5 line, giving 8/9 of my trade setup indicators in the green. There may be further movement down next week but I wanted to setup a potential entry point if this AUDNZD pair turns up when the markets open on Sunday night and through the early hours on Monday morning. The price is now entering a support level at this Fibonacci retracement level taken between Wave 2 and Wave 3 and should pull back no further than the Fibonacci 0.618 to stay with parameters for this with trend trading strategy setup, so will keep a close aye on this pair at the beginning f next week. An Elliott wave movement observation is also prominent, in that there was a complex Wave 2 and it follows that the Wave 4 is Simple as in this case so far. I have decided to put a Stop Buy order on @ 1.1080, which is a reasonably conservative entry outside of the trend channel for this Wave 4 pull back for Mondays bar position (blue vertical line) and above the high of Thursday’s Bar. The Stop Loss is @ 1.09550, which is below the Wave 4 extreme low (software will re-label when the market opens) and below the Fib 0.5 line. The initial Take profit Limit order is @ 1.14000 which gives a Risk to reward profile of over 1:2. I may have to adjust these levels on Monday/Tuesday depending on whether the Wave 4 pull back continues down to test this support level. Charts as below for this potential Long trade on the AUDNZD pair.