Gold–The One Less Traveled By

” Gold–The One Less Traveled By”

When I was in sixth grade, we had a substitute teacher for our English class one day who spent the entire lesson analyzing Robert Frost’s poem “The Road Not Taken” which he wrote in 1915-1916. This is the final stanza in the poem, which you may have memorized in school:

 

I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.

The reason this applies to the financial markets, other than the obvious contrarian implications, is that whichever road is least taken is almost always the most profitable. If you’re not sure what any particular asset will do during the next several months, then ask yourself which path would reward the fewest investors. That will be the path which is likely to be “trodden black,” to take a phrase from another part of the above poem.

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true contrarian
Steven Jon Kaplan began www.truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/ in August 1996. In February 2006, he added an update service several times per week, including intraday updates whenever purchases or sales are made in his own account. The basic concept is that the most extreme distortions from fair value occur when investors either crowd into or bail out of the same assets simultaneously due to emotional herding behavior, and thereby provide the best trading opportunities since such irrational distortions will eventually revert to fair value and beyond.
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true contrarian

true contrarian

Steven Jon Kaplan began www.truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/ in August 1996. In February 2006, he added an update service several times per week, including intraday updates whenever purchases or sales are made in his own account. The basic concept is that the most extreme distortions from fair value occur when investors either crowd into or bail out of the same assets simultaneously due to emotional herding behavior, and thereby provide the best trading opportunities since such irrational distortions will eventually revert to fair value and beyond.

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