Non-farm payroll forecasts July 2014

Jobs figures revised up before release – Non-farm payroll

 

U.S. growth contracted by a shocking 2.9 percent in the first quarter (Q1) of 2014. This is only the third time that the nation has seen such a drop since the end of the recession.

Job numbers have been strong and consistent in the last few months, after recovering from bad winter weather. Job estimates were pushed up to 211,000 from 198,000 at the beginning of the week, as economists remain optimistic for a better Q2. If the consensus is met than it will show a slight decline from last month’s non-farm payroll result of 217,000.

Non-farm payrolls have averaged 198K over the last 12 months and Consumer Confidence for June remains high, with some positive retail sales figures coming in for the month. Tensions in the Middle East have had minimal effect on the jobs figures, as President Obama prepares the U.S. to take control of the sectarian violence in the region.

The last four non-farm payroll readings have all come in above 200K. Analysts expect a similar level for a fifth consecutive time for June’s report. A growth rate of around 3% for the year sees the U.S.’s most consistent run of jobs numbers for over a decade.

Trading volumes have been thin over the last few weeks as many investors wait for a correction in the markets, with global indices continuing to hit highs. However, strong volatility is expected to return to the markets on Thursday with the European Central Bank holding a meeting around the same time.

 

Non-farm payrolls Infographic - July 2014
Non-farm payroll forecast data infographic – July 2014

 


Thursday 3rd July 13.30 BSTUnemployment Claims – This is a weekly figure which shows the number of individuals who file unemployment insurance for the first time. A 4-week moving average should give an indication whether the employment situation has improved or worsened in comparison to the previous month.

The non-farm payrolls will be released one day early on Thursday 3rd July at 13.30 BST due to American Independence Day on the 4th of July – a national holiday causing the closure of U.S. markets.

 


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Providing market news and insights to support your trades, Spread Co is a leading online provider of Contracts for Difference (CFDs), Spread Betting and Forex. Trade thousands of global markets including indices, equities, commodities and currency pairs with tight, fixed spreads, low margins and low trading costs. Visit www.spreadco.com for more information. Leveraged products carry risk.

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